Hennef 05 U19 2–3 Osnabrück U19: Result & Stats

Hennef 05 U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Osnabrück U19

A. Rznic 90', 62'

N. Scheuer 85' (pen)

J. Völkerding 77'

R. Shivani 73' (pen)

2/2/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 1Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hennef 05 U1943%

×Draw22%

Osnabrück U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hennef 05 U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.72

Hennef 05 U19

1.91

Osnabrück U19

1.72

Hennef 05 U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 73 away

1.31

creates per match

1.29

2.15

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

Osnabrück U19

1.29

allows per match

Hennef 05 U19

2.15

Osnabrück U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Hennef 05 U19 or draw

65%

Hennef 05 U19 or Osnabrück U19

78%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

57%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

23%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

85%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

57%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

30%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

82%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

51%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.91

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

43%

level

22%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

35%

Hennef 05 U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hennef 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

A. Rznic← K. Cornelius

56'

C. Catak← A. Ćorić

60'

D. Kifel← E. Zucht

62'

A. Rznic

73'

R. ShivaniPenalty

76'

J. Völkerding← L. Bukvić

77'

J. Völkerding

78'

D. Nduchekwe← H. Suguro

78'

S. Music← K. Becher

85'

N. ScheuerPenalty

87'

N. Kunz← S. Pietrek

87'

S. Delkic← L. Dang

87'

E. Rahe← J. Korte

87'

L. Uwandu← N. Scheuer

87'

V. Bischoff← R. Shivani

87'

Ö. Bulut← F. Cramer

90'

A. Rznic

Hennef

Osnabrück

Remberg

Eilers

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Lunga

56'▲A. Rznic←▼K. Cornelius

56'▲C. Catak←▼A. Ćorić

78'▲D. Nduchekwe←▼H. Suguro

78'▲S. Music←▼K. Becher

87'▲N. Kunz←▼S. Pietrek

87'▲S. Delkic←▼L. Dang

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

RznicCatakNduchekweMusicKunzDelkicBouakran

Manager: T. Danneberg

60'▲D. Kifel←▼E. Zucht

76'▲J. Völkerding←▼L. Bukvić

87'▲E. Rahe←▼J. Korte

87'▲L. Uwandu←▼N. Scheuer

87'▲V. Bischoff←▼R. Shivani

87'▲Ö. Bulut←▼F. Cramer

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

KifelVölkerdingRaheUwanduBischoffBulutSiemon

U19 Bundesliga: Hennef 05 U19 2–3 Osnabrück U19

Osnabrück U19 beat Hennef 05 U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 2, 2025.

Goals: A. Rznic (62', 90'), R. Shivani (73' pen), J. Völkerding (77'), N. Scheuer (85' pen).

The match was played at Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef in Hennef.

Hennef 05 U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hennef 05 U19 2–3 Osnabrück U19