Osnabrück U19 1–2 Hansa Rostock U19: Result & Stats

Osnabrück U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hansa Rostock U19

P. Remmert 90+3'

G. Pelzer 61'

T. Krohn 5'

10/22/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 8Sportanlage am Schinkelberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Osnabrück U1938%

×Draw22%

Hansa Rostock U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osnabrück U19Expected goals in this matchHansa Rostock U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.90

Osnabrück U19

1.85

Hansa Rostock U19

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 58 away

1.29

creates per match

1.84

1.95

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Osnabrück U19

1.29

Hansa Rostock U19

1.84

allows per match

Osnabrück U19

1.95

Hansa Rostock U19

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Hansa Rostock U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw

60%

Osnabrück U19 or Hansa Rostock U19

78%

Draw or Hansa Rostock U19

62%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

20%

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

84%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

55%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

28%

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

85%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

56%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Hansa Rostock U19 away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.85

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 1.84 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more

38%

level

22%

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

40%

Hansa Rostock U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hansa Rostock U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

T. Krohn

59'

L. Uwandu← E. Anozie

59'

S. Sergkanis← N. Werner

61'

G. Pelzer

69'

P. Remmert← R. Shivani

76'

E. Zucht← K. Katkó

76'

J. Dindic← K. Wiethaup

78'

M. Szybora← L. Schmitt

86'

C. Zamzow← A. Wrębiakowski

90+1'

M. Heiden← L. Bera

90+1'

M. Krebs← Mahdi Mohammadi

90+3'

P. Remmert

Osnabrück

Hansa

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Fetz

59'▲L. Uwandu←▼E. Anozie

59'▲S. Sergkanis←▼N. Werner

69'▲P. Remmert←▼R. Shivani

76'▲E. Zucht←▼K. Katkó

76'▲J. Dindic←▼K. Wiethaup

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

UwanduSergkanisRemmertZuchtDindicHaucapBrink

Manager: C. Rahn

78'▲M. Szybora←▼L. Schmitt

86'▲C. Zamzow←▼A. Wrębiakowski

90+1'▲M. Heiden←▼L. Bera

90+1'▲M. Krebs←▼Mahdi Mohammadi

Hansa Rostock U19 substitutes

SzyboraZamzowHeidenKrebsPodeynConradFürstenau

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Hansa Rostock U19

Hansa Rostock U19 beat Osnabrück U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 22, 2023.

Goals: T. Krohn (5'), G. Pelzer (61'), P. Remmert (90+3').

The match was played at Sportanlage am Schinkelberg in Osnabrück.

Osnabrück U19 vs Hansa Rostock U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Hansa Rostock U19