Hansa Rostock U19 0–1 Osnabrück U19: Result & Stats

Hansa Rostock U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Osnabrück U19

T. Kanowski 4'

4/3/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 16Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Hansa Rostock U1948%

×Draw20%

Osnabrück U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.82

Hansa Rostock U19

2.28

Osnabrück U19

1.82

Hansa Rostock U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 73 away

2.05

creates per match

1.29

2.36

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.05

Osnabrück U19

1.29

allows per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.36

Osnabrück U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock U19 or draw

69%

Hansa Rostock U19 or Osnabrück U19

80%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

52%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

29%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

90%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

66%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

39%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

84%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

54%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.36 · 59 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 2.05 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.28

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

48%

level

20%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

31%

Hansa Rostock U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hansa Rostock U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

T. Kanowski

53'

P. Schmidt← M. Ritter

60'

O. Zajac← M. Brzozowski

60'

R. Celotto← N. Schulz

81'

K. Antosiak← L. Juhrmann

84'

B. Ersoy

90+1'

M. Winkel← S. Yüksekdağ

90+4'

T. Berling← J. Chorushij

Hansa

Osnabrück

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: U. Ehlers

60'▲O. Zajac←▼M. Brzozowski

60'▲R. Celotto←▼N. Schulz

81'▲K. Antosiak←▼L. Juhrmann

Hansa Rostock U19 substitutes

ZajacCelottoAntosiakKohlischSpernerHoffmannHildebrandt

Manager: K. Fetz

53'▲P. Schmidt←▼M. Ritter

90+1'▲M. Winkel←▼S. Yüksekdağ

90+4'▲T. Berling←▼J. Chorushij

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

SchmidtWinkelBerlingSmithBastwösteGorny

U19 Bundesliga: Hansa Rostock U19 0–1 Osnabrück U19

Osnabrück U19 beat Hansa Rostock U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 3, 2022.

Goals: T. Kanowski (4').

The match was played at Volksstadion in Rostock.

Hansa Rostock U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hansa Rostock U19 0–1 Osnabrück U19