Osnabrück U19 1–1 Hannover 96 U19: Result & Stats

Osnabrück U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hannover 96 U19

L. Ricker Rasteiro 25'

N. Tresoldi 70'

3/5/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 15Sportpark Illoshöhe Nebenplatz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Osnabrück U1930%

×Draw22%

Hannover 96 U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osnabrück U19Expected goals in this matchHannover 96 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

2.01

Osnabrück U19

1.55

Hannover 96 U19

2.01

Hannover 96 U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 74 away

1.29

creates per match

2.07

1.95

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Osnabrück U19

1.29

Hannover 96 U19

2.07

allows per match

Osnabrück U19

1.95

Hannover 96 U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Hannover 96 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw

52%

Osnabrück U19 or Hannover 96 U19

78%

Draw or Hannover 96 U19

70%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

14%

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

79%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

46%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

20%

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

87%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

59%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Hannover 96 U19 away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.81 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.55

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.07 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more

30%

level

22%

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

48%

Hannover 96 U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

L. Ricker Rasteiro

46'

E. Krasniqi← M. Dammeier

46'

L. Homik← D. Sura

70'

N. Tresoldi

78'

S. Yüksekdağ← L. Ricker Rasteiro

90+2'

M. Leue← B. Ersoy

Osnabrück

Hannover

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: K. Fetz

78'▲S. Yüksekdağ←▼L. Ricker Rasteiro

90+2'▲M. Leue←▼B. Ersoy

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

YüksekdağLeueBastwösteGornyWinkelSchmidtBerling

Manager: S. Schmidt

46'▲E. Krasniqi←▼M. Dammeier

46'▲L. Homik←▼D. Sura

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

KrasniqiHomikSadikuŠejtoTiernanBock