Hannover 96 U19 5–0 Osnabrück U19: Result & Stats

Hannover 96 U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Osnabrück U19

L. Ahenkora 90'

A. Moser 57'

T. Hobrecht 47'

Rafael Martins Marques 45' (pen)

A. Vogel 20'

8/14/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 396 Das Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Hannover 96 U1962%

×Draw19%

Osnabrück U1920%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96 U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.33

Hannover 96 U19

2.46

Osnabrück U19

1.33

Hannover 96 U19 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 73 away

2.41

creates per match

1.29

1.38

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19

2.41

Osnabrück U19

1.29

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19

1.38

Osnabrück U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw

80%

Hannover 96 U19 or Osnabrück U19

81%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

38%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

40%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

91%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

70%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

44%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

74%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

38%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.41 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.46

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

62%

level

19%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

20%

Hannover 96 U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

A. Vogel

45'

Rafael Martins MarquesPenalty

47'

T. Hobrecht

53'

D. Kifel← J. Völkerding

53'

L. Uwandu← R. Acar

57'

A. Moser

63'

J. Meusel← R. Rühling

63'

L. Ahenkora← T. Hobrecht

63'

N. Scheuer← M. Khan

63'

R. Shivani← E. Zucht

63'

V. Bischoff← L. Bukvić

72'

A. Hanke← O. Wegner

72'

O. Schwarz← D. Husser

81'

81'

81'

90'

Hannover

Osnabrück

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Hobrecht

Manager: D. Lottner

63'▲J. Meusel←▼R. Rühling

63'▲L. Ahenkora←▼T. Hobrecht

72'▲A. Hanke←▼O. Wegner

72'▲O. Schwarz←▼D. Husser

81'▲M. Belger←▼L. Karaqi

81'▲P. Lorenz←▼A. Lange

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

MeuselAhenkoraHankeSchwarzBelgerLorenzLange

Manager: A. Ukrow

53'▲D. Kifel←▼J. Völkerding

53'▲L. Uwandu←▼R. Acar

63'▲N. Scheuer←▼M. Khan

63'▲R. Shivani←▼E. Zucht

63'▲V. Bischoff←▼L. Bukvić

81'▲C. Akbas←▼I. Touray

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

KifelUwanduScheuerShivaniBischoffAkbasSiemon