Osnabrück U19 4–0 Eintracht Braunsch U19

Osnabrück U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Eintracht Braunsch U19

J. Breulmann 82'

B. van den Berg 50', 24'

A. Stach 14' (pen)

4/8/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 23VfL Osnabrück Leistungszentrum Nebenplatz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Osnabrück U1944%

×Draw22%

Eintracht Braunsch U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osnabrück U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Braunsch U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.67

Osnabrück U19

1.90

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.67

Osnabrück U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 55 away

1.29

creates per match

1.38

1.95

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Osnabrück U19

1.29

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.38

allows per match

Osnabrück U19

1.95

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Eintracht Braunsch U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw

66%

Osnabrück U19 or Eintracht Braunsch U19

78%

Draw or Eintracht Braunsch U19

56%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

24%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

85%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

56%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

29%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

81%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

50%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Eintracht Braunsch U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.51 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.90

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 1.38 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more

44%

level

22%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

34%

Osnabrück U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Osnabrück U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. StachPenalty

24'

B. van den Berg

50'

B. van den Berg

58'

M. Berse← L. Bürger

58'

M. Schleef← M. Erdmann

69'

J. Tepe← D. Rosum

70'

J. Fiedler← L. Fleischmann

71'

Z. Atalan← J. Burke

76'

S. Abifade← A. Vojtenko

82'

J. Breulmann

83'

M. Bischoff← M. Hartke

83'

N. Piel← J. Breulmann

Osnabrück

Eintracht

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: D. Thioune

69'▲J. Tepe←▼D. Rosum

71'▲Z. Atalan←▼J. Burke

83'▲M. Bischoff←▼M. Hartke

83'▲N. Piel←▼J. Breulmann

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

TepeAtalanBischoffPielJanßenRohrmann

Manager: S. Eickel

58'▲M. Berse←▼L. Bürger

58'▲M. Schleef←▼M. Erdmann

70'▲J. Fiedler←▼L. Fleischmann

76'▲S. Abifade←▼A. Vojtenko

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

BerseSchleefFiedlerAbifadeSeefeldt