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Eintracht Braunsch U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Eintracht Braunsch U19
Eintracht Braunsch U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
8/18/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 4Sportpark Kennel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Eintracht Braunsch U1948%
×Draw20%
Osnabrück U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Braunsch U19
2.27
Osnabrück U19
1.85

Eintracht Braunsch U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 50 away

creates per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19
2.08
Osnabrück U19
1.22

allows per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19
2.49
Osnabrück U19
2.46

finishing

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par
Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunsch U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or draw
68%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 or Osnabrück U19
80%
Draw or Osnabrück U19
52%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+
28%
Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals
90%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals
66%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals
39%
Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
84%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
55%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.49 · 39 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 2.08 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.27

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.22 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more
48%
level
20%
Osnabrück U19 scores more
32%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eintracht Braunsch U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunsch U19 1–3 Osnabrück U19

Osnabrück U19 beat Eintracht Braunsch U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Kennel in Braunschweig.