Eintracht Braunsch U19 0–4 Osnabrück U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Osnabrück U19

M. Schrick 78'

J. Tepe 76', 33'

J. Bretgeld 18' (pen)

12/9/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 15Sportpark Kennel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Eintracht Braunsch U1948%

×Draw20%

Osnabrück U1932%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Braunsch U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.90

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.32

Osnabrück U19

1.90

Eintracht Braunsch U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 73 away

2.13

creates per match

1.29

2.50

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.13

Osnabrück U19

1.29

allows per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.50

Osnabrück U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunsch U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or draw

68%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or Osnabrück U19

80%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

52%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

28%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

90%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

67%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

40%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

85%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

56%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 2.13 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.32

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

48%

level

20%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

32%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eintracht Braunsch U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

J. BretgeldPenalty

33'

J. Tepe

46'

F. Vy-Ngoc← M. Erdmann

62'

F. Agu← L. Uedickoven

64'

J. Breulmann← J. Ramm

66'

T. Heike← H. Bartels

71'

B. Barry← A. Vojtenko

76'

J. Tepe

78'

M. Schrick

80'

M. Schleef← T. Töpken

80'

G. Przondziono← J. Tepe

82'

S. Mansaray← D. Rosum

Eintracht

Osnabrück

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Eickel

46'▲F. Vy-Ngoc←▼M. Erdmann

66'▲T. Heike←▼H. Bartels

71'▲B. Barry←▼A. Vojtenko

80'▲M. Schleef←▼T. Töpken

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

Vy-NgocHeikeBarrySchleefAkyüzRudzki

Manager: M. Tredup

62'▲F. Agu←▼L. Uedickoven

64'▲J. Breulmann←▼J. Ramm

80'▲G. Przondziono←▼J. Tepe

82'▲S. Mansaray←▼D. Rosum

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

AguBreulmannPrzondzionoMansarayDuarteBeckemeyer