Osnabrück U19 3–2 Dynamo Dresden U19

Osnabrück U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Dynamo Dresden U19

K. Wiethaup 73'

J. Zahmel 45+1'

K. Weyh 41' (OG)

J. Hoffmann 64'

T. Jacobi 16'

12/18/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 7Sportpark Illoshöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Osnabrück U1933%

×Draw23%

Dynamo Dresden U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osnabrück U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.80

Osnabrück U19

1.52

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.80

Dynamo Dresden U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 80 away

1.28

creates per match

1.55

2.05

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Osnabrück U19

1.28

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.55

allows per match

Osnabrück U19

2.05

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw

56%

Osnabrück U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19

77%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19

67%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

15%

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

78%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

45%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

20%

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

83%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

54%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.05 · 57 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.28 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.55 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more

33%

level

23%

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

44%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

T. Jacobi

41'

K. WeyhOwn goal

45+1'

J. Zahmel

46'

J. Oehmichen← K. Weyh

46'

L. Schmidt← J. Spica

60'

M. Winkel← J. Chorushij

60'

S. Yüksekdağ← J. Zahmel

64'

J. Hoffmann

73'

K. Wiethaup

81'

L. Becker← T. Jacobi

83'

J. Löwe← J. Hasenberg

90'

E. Anozie← K. Wiethaup

90+2'

J. Pantke← L. Ricker Rasteiro

Osnabrück

Dynamo

Herrmann

Hollenbac

🥅

▼

Weyh

▼

Hasenberg

▼

Spica

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Wiethaup

Moulai

Manager: K. Fetz

60'▲M. Winkel←▼J. Chorushij

60'▲S. Yüksekdağ←▼J. Zahmel

90'▲E. Anozie←▼K. Wiethaup

90+2'▲J. Pantke←▼L. Ricker Rasteiro

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

WinkelYüksekdağAnoziePantkeSmithGornyBerling

Manager: W. Weisse

46'▲J. Oehmichen←▼K. Weyh

46'▲L. Schmidt←▼J. Spica

81'▲L. Becker←▼T. Jacobi

83'▲J. Löwe←▼J. Hasenberg

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

OehmichenSchmidtBeckerLöweMaulWetschkaFischer

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19

Osnabrück U19 beat Dynamo Dresden U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on December 18, 2021.

Goals: T. Jacobi (16'), K. Weyh (41' o.g.), J. Zahmel (45+1'), J. Hoffmann (64'), K. Wiethaup (73').

The match was played at Sportpark Illoshöhe in Osnabrück.

Osnabrück U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19