Dynamo Dresden U19 3–1 Osnabrück U19

Dynamo Dresden U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Osnabrück U19

E. Zeil 54' (pen)

T. Menzel 48'

L. Krause 34'

I. Badjie 32'

4/21/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 23Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1957%

×Draw20%

Osnabrück U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Dresden U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.43

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.33

Osnabrück U19

1.43

Dynamo Dresden U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 54 away

2.22

creates per match

1.30

1.55

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.22

Osnabrück U19

1.30

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.55

Osnabrück U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw

77%

Dynamo Dresden U19 or Osnabrück U19

80%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

43%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

36%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

90%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

67%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

41%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

76%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

42%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.43 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 2.22 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.33

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.30 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

23%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

I. Badjie

34'

L. Krause

48'

T. Menzel

54'

E. ZeilPenalty

61'

61'

61'

62'

77'

C. Förster← L. Krause

77'

82'

82'

90'

90'

D. Arnold← A. Herrmann

Dynamo

Osnabrück

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Krause

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: W. Weiße

62'▲N. Orth←▼T. Menzel

77'▲C. Förster←▼L. Krause

77'▲F. Göpfert←▼Q. Grafe

90'▲C. Tölg←▼D. Bohdanov

90'▲D. Arnold←▼A. Herrmann

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

OrthFörsterGöpfertTölgArnoldKummerowSchrumpf

Manager: K. Fetz

61'▲L. Uwandu←▼L. Bukvić

61'▲M. Khan←▼P. Remmert

61'▲N. Werner←▼E. Zucht

82'▲I. Touray←▼E. Anozie

82'▲K. Katkó←▼R. Acar

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

UwanduKhanWernerTourayKatkóHaucapSiemon

U19 Bundesliga: Dynamo Dresden U19 3–1 Osnabrück U19

Dynamo Dresden U19 beat Osnabrück U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 21, 2024.

Goals: I. Badjie (32'), L. Krause (34'), T. Menzel (48'), E. Zeil (54' pen).

The match was played at Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15 in Dresden.

Dynamo Dresden U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Dynamo Dresden U19 3–1 Osnabrück U19