Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Osnabrück U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
P. Wienholt 90', 85'
D. Kifel 51' (pen)
B. Afghanyar 70'
T. Coşar 44'
V. Bischoff 3' (OG)
8/9/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 2Sportpark Illoshöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Osnabrück U1938%
×Draw23%
Arminia Bielefeld U1939%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osnabrück U19
1.68
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 62 away

creates per match

Osnabrück U19
1.29
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.44

allows per match

Osnabrück U19
1.95
Arminia Bielefeld U19
2.06

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par
Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw
61%
Osnabrück U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19
77%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19
62%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
19%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
81%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
50%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
24%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
82%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
50%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more
38%
level
23%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
39%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
V. BischoffOwn goal
44'
T. Coşar
51'
D. KifelPenalty
70'
B. Afghanyar
85'
P. Wienholt
90'
P. Wienholt
Osnabrück
Arminia
T. Danneberg
Manager: T. Danneberg
M. Drobe
Manager: M. Drobe

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19

Osnabrück U19 and Arminia Bielefeld U19 drew 3-3 in U19 Bundesliga on August 9, 2025.

Goals: V. Bischoff (3' o.g.), T. Coşar (44'), D. Kifel (51' pen), B. Afghanyar (70'), P. Wienholt (85', 90').

The match was played at Sportpark Illoshöhe in Osnabrück.