Arminia Bielefeld U19 5–0 Osnabrück U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Osnabrück U19

G. Gutmann 89'

T. Coşar 83'

L. Afolabi 74'

L. Dick 41'

D. Richter 7'

11/23/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 12Sportplatz Masch Kunstrasen A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld U1951%

×Draw21%

Osnabrück U1928%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia Bielefeld U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.48

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.07

Osnabrück U19

1.48

Arminia Bielefeld U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 73 away

1.63

creates per match

1.29

1.68

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.63

Osnabrück U19

1.29

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.68

Osnabrück U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or draw

72%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or Osnabrück U19

79%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

49%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

30%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

87%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

61%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

34%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

77%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

43%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.68 · 60 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.63 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.07

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

51%

level

21%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

28%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

D. Richter

41'

L. Dick

46'

M. Khan← F. Albrecht

53'

G. Gutmann← D. Richter

68'

T. Coşar← L. Dick

68'

E. Zucht← D. Kifel

68'

L. Uwandu← O. Fehring

74'

L. Afolabi

76'

C. Akbas← N. Scheuer

76'

T. Ganter← F. Cramer

76'

V. Bischoff← J. Völkerding

83'

85'

85'

85'

85'

M. Gouiffe à Goufan← J. Lübke

89'

G. Gutmann

Arminia

Osnabrück

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Afolabi

▼

Krüger

Bärenwald

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Richter

▼

Lübke

Manager: M. Drobe

53'▲G. Gutmann←▼D. Richter

68'▲T. Coşar←▼L. Dick

85'▲B. Klocke←▼J. Lukas

85'▲E. Arda←▼L. Afolabi

85'▲L. Haase←▼T. Krüger

85'▲M. Gouiffe à Goufan←▼J. Lübke

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

GutmannCoşarKlockeArdaHaaseGoufanZaloha

Manager: A. Ukrow

46'▲M. Khan←▼F. Albrecht

68'▲E. Zucht←▼D. Kifel

68'▲L. Uwandu←▼O. Fehring

76'▲C. Akbas←▼N. Scheuer

76'▲T. Ganter←▼F. Cramer

76'▲V. Bischoff←▼J. Völkerding

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

KhanZuchtUwanduAkbasGanterBischoffWessels

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 5–0 Osnabrück U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 beat Osnabrück U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 23, 2024.

Goals: D. Richter (7'), L. Dick (41'), L. Afolabi (74'), T. Coşar (83'), G. Gutmann (89').

The match was played at Sportplatz Masch Kunstrasen A in Halle.

Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 5–0 Osnabrück U19