Osmanlispor 1–1 Elazığspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Osmanlispor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Elazığspor

11/26/2018

1. Lig · Round 13Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Osmanlispor48%

×Draw24%

Elazığspor28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsmanlisporExpected goals in this matchElazığspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.24

Osmanlispor

1.71

Elazığspor

1.24

Osmanlispor creates 38% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.29

creates per match

1.12

1.35

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Osmanlispor

1.29

Elazığspor

1.12

allows per match

Osmanlispor

1.35

Elazığspor

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osmanlispor+0.00on par

Elazığspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osmanlispor ↓

Elazığspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Osmanlispor or draw

72%

Osmanlispor or Elazığspor

76%

Draw or Elazığspor

52%

Winning margin

Osmanlispor wins by 2+

26%

Elazığspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Osmanlispor 1+ goals

82%

Osmanlispor 2+ goals

51%

Osmanlispor 3+ goals

24%

Elazığspor 1+ goals

71%

Elazığspor 2+ goals

35%

Elazığspor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Osmanlispor (draw refunded)

63%

Elazığspor (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osmanlispor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Elazığspor away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osmanlispor attack 1.29 + Elazığspor defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.71

Elazığspor attack 1.12 + Osmanlispor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Osmanlispor scores more

48%

level

24%

Elazığspor scores more

28%

Osmanlispor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Osmanlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff