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Elazığspor vs Osmanlispor — 1. Lig 2018

Elazığspor
Elazığspor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Osmanlispor
Osmanlispor
4/19/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 30Yeni Malatya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Elazığspor35%
×Draw26%
Osmanlispor39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elazığspor
1.29
Osmanlispor
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

creates per match

Elazığspor
1.12
Osmanlispor
1.10

allows per match

Elazığspor
1.65
Osmanlispor
1.46

finishing

Elazığspor+0.00on par
Osmanlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elazığspor ↓

Osmanlispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Elazığspor or draw
61%
Elazığspor or Osmanlispor
74%
Draw or Osmanlispor
65%

Winning margin

Elazığspor wins by 2+
15%
Osmanlispor wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Elazığspor 1+ goals
72%
Elazığspor 2+ goals
37%
Elazığspor 3+ goals
14%
Osmanlispor 1+ goals
75%
Osmanlispor 2+ goals
40%
Osmanlispor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Elazığspor (draw refunded)
47%
Osmanlispor (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elazığspor at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Osmanlispor away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elazığspor attack 1.12 + Osmanlispor defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Osmanlispor attack 1.10 + Elazığspor defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Elazığspor scores more
35%
level
26%
Osmanlispor scores more
39%

Osmanlispor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Osmanlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elazığspor vs Osmanlispor

Osmanlispor beat Elazığspor 2-1 in 1. Lig on April 19, 2019.

The match was played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu in Malatya.