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Osmanlispor vs Bursaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Osmanlispor
Osmanlispor
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Bursaspor
Bursaspor
2/9/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 21Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Osmanlispor41%
×Draw25%
Bursaspor35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osmanlispor
1.52
Bursaspor
1.38

Osmanlispor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 53 away

creates per match

Osmanlispor
1.29
Bursaspor
1.40

allows per match

Osmanlispor
1.35
Bursaspor
1.75

finishing

Osmanlispor+0.00on par
Bursaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osmanlispor ↓

Bursaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Osmanlispor or draw
65%
Osmanlispor or Bursaspor
75%
Draw or Bursaspor
59%

Winning margin

Osmanlispor wins by 2+
20%
Bursaspor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Osmanlispor 1+ goals
78%
Osmanlispor 2+ goals
45%
Osmanlispor 3+ goals
20%
Bursaspor 1+ goals
75%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
40%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Osmanlispor (draw refunded)
54%
Bursaspor (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osmanlispor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Bursaspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.75 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osmanlispor attack 1.29 + Bursaspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bursaspor attack 1.40 + Osmanlispor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Osmanlispor scores more
41%
level
25%
Bursaspor scores more
35%

Osmanlispor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Osmanlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Osmanlispor vs Bursaspor

Bursaspor beat Osmanlispor 4-2 in 1. Lig on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.