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Ankaraspor vs Bursaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Ankaraspor
Ankaraspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bursaspor
Bursaspor
11/7/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 9Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ankaraspor41%
×Draw25%
Bursaspor35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ankaraspor
1.52
Bursaspor
1.38

Ankaraspor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 53 away

creates per match

Ankaraspor
1.29
Bursaspor
1.40

allows per match

Ankaraspor
1.35
Bursaspor
1.75

finishing

Ankaraspor+0.00on par
Bursaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaraspor ↓

Bursaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ankaraspor or draw
65%
Ankaraspor or Bursaspor
75%
Draw or Bursaspor
59%

Winning margin

Ankaraspor wins by 2+
20%
Bursaspor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ankaraspor 1+ goals
78%
Ankaraspor 2+ goals
45%
Ankaraspor 3+ goals
20%
Bursaspor 1+ goals
75%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
40%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ankaraspor (draw refunded)
54%
Bursaspor (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaraspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Bursaspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.75 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaraspor attack 1.29 + Bursaspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bursaspor attack 1.40 + Ankaraspor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ankaraspor scores more
41%
level
25%
Bursaspor scores more
35%

Ankaraspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ankaraspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Ankaraspor 1–1 Bursaspor

Ankaraspor and Bursaspor drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.