Osmaniyespor 2–0 Gölcükspor: Result & Stats

Osmaniyespor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Gölcükspor

Y. Koç 45+3'

H. Şimşek 10'

11/12/2020

League #554 · Group 3 - 8Osmaniye 7 Ocak Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Osmaniyespor55%

×Draw25%

Gölcükspor20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsmaniyesporExpected goals in this matchGölcükspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.85

Osmaniyespor

1.61

Gölcükspor

0.85

Osmaniyespor creates 89% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 23 away

1.75

creates per match

0.96

0.75

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Osmaniyespor

1.75

Gölcükspor

0.96

allows per match

Osmaniyespor

0.75

Gölcükspor

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osmaniyespor+0.00on par

Gölcükspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osmaniyespor ↓

Gölcükspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Osmaniyespor or draw

80%

Osmaniyespor or Gölcükspor

75%

Draw or Gölcükspor

45%

Winning margin

Osmaniyespor wins by 2+

30%

Gölcükspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Osmaniyespor 1+ goals

80%

Osmaniyespor 2+ goals

48%

Osmaniyespor 3+ goals

22%

Gölcükspor 1+ goals

57%

Gölcükspor 2+ goals

21%

Gölcükspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Osmaniyespor (draw refunded)

74%

Gölcükspor (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osmaniyespor at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Gölcükspor away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osmaniyespor attack 1.75 + Gölcükspor defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.61

Gölcükspor attack 0.96 + Osmaniyespor defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Osmaniyespor scores more

55%

level

25%

Gölcükspor scores more

20%

Osmaniyespor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Osmaniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

45+3'

46'

46'

67'

68'

B. Kara← A. Erhal

68'

E. Dada← F. Yiğit

83'

T. Şahin← H. Şimşek

89'

F. Taşdelen← H. Cenik

Osmaniyespor

Gölcükspor

16

3

4

2

10

41

▼

Özdemir

8

Özyapı

11

Aras

17

▼

Şen

39

▼

7

13

39

15

23

7

▼

Öztürk

30

⚽

Koç

61

Birinci

58

⚽

▼

Şimşek

5

▼

Erhal

20

Bayraktar

9

▼

Cenik

Manager: M. Sarıgül

67'▲S. Ceylan←▼M. Öztürk

68'▲B. Kara←▼A. Erhal

83'▲T. Şahin←▼H. Şimşek

89'▲F. Taşdelen←▼H. Cenik

Osmaniyespor substitutes

11Ceylan76Kara10Şahin29Taşdelen45Akyürek22Ekiz6Epik

Manager: T. Akdoğan

46'▲A. Parlak←▼B. Şen

46'▲B. Durdu←▼Y. Özdemir

68'▲E. Dada←▼F. Yiğit

Gölcükspor substitutes

9Parlak77Durdu48Dada95Arıkan22Işık26Koparan55Çalışır

League #554: Osmaniyespor 2–0 Gölcükspor

Osmaniyespor beat Gölcükspor 2-0 in League #554 on November 12, 2020.

Goals: H. Şimşek (10'), Y. Koç (45+3').

The match was played at Osmaniye 7 Ocak Stadyumu in Osmaniye.

Osmaniyespor vs Gölcükspor — League #554 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #554: Osmaniyespor 2–0 Gölcükspor