Gölcükspor 1–2 Osmaniyespor: Result & Stats

Gölcükspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Osmaniyespor

V. Ortakcı 50'

A. Aldemir 75'

Y. Koç 71' (pen)

3/11/2021

League #554 · Group 3 - 25Gölcük Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gölcükspor33%

×Draw28%

Osmaniyespor39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GölcüksporExpected goals in this matchOsmaniyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.22

Gölcükspor

1.11

Osmaniyespor

1.22

Osmaniyespor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

0.90

creates per match

1.33

1.10

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Gölcükspor

0.90

Osmaniyespor

1.33

allows per match

Gölcükspor

1.10

Osmaniyespor

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gölcükspor+0.00on par

Osmaniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gölcükspor ↓

Osmaniyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gölcükspor or draw

61%

Gölcükspor or Osmaniyespor

72%

Draw or Osmaniyespor

67%

Winning margin

Gölcükspor wins by 2+

13%

Osmaniyespor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gölcükspor 1+ goals

67%

Gölcükspor 2+ goals

30%

Gölcükspor 3+ goals

10%

Osmaniyespor 1+ goals

70%

Osmaniyespor 2+ goals

34%

Osmaniyespor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gölcükspor (draw refunded)

46%

Osmaniyespor (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gölcükspor at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Osmaniyespor away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gölcükspor attack 0.90 + Osmaniyespor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Osmaniyespor attack 1.33 + Gölcükspor defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gölcükspor scores more

33%

level

28%

Osmaniyespor scores more

39%

Osmaniyespor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Osmaniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

50'

61'

61'

66'

71'

Y. KoçPenalty

75'

79'

87'

87'

90+2'

Gölcükspor

Osmaniyespor

13

39

15

3

25

30

⚽

▼

Koç

61

Birinci

17

▼

Yener

76

Kara

9

▼

Cenik

66

▼

Evren

16

Yenigün

55

▼

Çalışır

4

⚽

Ortakcı

22

Işık

77

Durdu

26

▼

Koparan

29

Tunç

8

▼

Özyapı

11

Aras

17

Şen

71

▼

Güner

Manager: E. Kardeşler

46'▲E. Atilla←▼C. Güner

66'▲T. Köse←▼M. Koparan

79'▲C. Halil←▼S. Çalışır

87'▲M. Avcı←▼F. Özyapı

Gölcükspor substitutes

70Atilla59Köse24Halil2Avcı3Öge12Fidan95Arıkan

Manager: M. Sarıgül

61'▲M. Dursun←▼A. Yener

61'▲A. Aldemir←▼B. Evren

87'▲B. Yılmaz←▼H. Cenik

90+2'▲O. Kızıltaş←▼Y. Koç

Osmaniyespor substitutes

12Dursun18Aldemir16Yılmaz80Kızıltaş1Soylu22Ekiz77Ateş