Oskarshamns AIK 0–1 Norrby IF: Result & Stats

Oskarshamns AIK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Norrby IF

4/13/2025

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 3Arena Oskarshamn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Oskarshamns AIK36%

×Draw24%

Norrby IF39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oskarshamns AIKExpected goals in this matchNorrby IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.55

Oskarshamns AIK

1.48

Norrby IF

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 45 away

1.69

creates per match

1.56

1.54

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Oskarshamns AIK

1.69

Norrby IF

1.56

allows per match

Oskarshamns AIK

1.54

Norrby IF

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par

Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oskarshamns AIK ↓

Norrby IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Oskarshamns AIK or draw

61%

Oskarshamns AIK or Norrby IF

76%

Draw or Norrby IF

64%

Winning margin

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+

17%

Norrby IF wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals

77%

Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals

43%

Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals

19%

Norrby IF 1+ goals

79%

Norrby IF 2+ goals

46%

Norrby IF 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)

48%

Norrby IF (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oskarshamns AIK at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.54 · 106 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.69 + Norrby IF defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Norrby IF attack 1.56 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oskarshamns AIK scores more

36%

level

24%

Norrby IF scores more

39%

Norrby IF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff