Norrby IF 3–0 Oskarshamns AIK: Result & Stats

Norrby IF

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oskarshamns AIK

8/10/2025

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 17Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Norrby IF56%

×Draw22%

Oskarshamns AIK22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norrby IFExpected goals in this matchOskarshamns AIK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.10

Norrby IF

1.91

Oskarshamns AIK

1.10

Norrby IF creates 74% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 107 away

2.11

creates per match

1.07

1.13

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Norrby IF

2.11

Oskarshamns AIK

1.07

allows per match

Norrby IF

1.13

Oskarshamns AIK

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norrby IF+0.00on par

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrby IF ↓

Oskarshamns AIK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Norrby IF or draw

78%

Norrby IF or Oskarshamns AIK

78%

Draw or Oskarshamns AIK

44%

Winning margin

Norrby IF wins by 2+

33%

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Norrby IF 1+ goals

85%

Norrby IF 2+ goals

57%

Norrby IF 3+ goals

30%

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals

67%

Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals

30%

Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Norrby IF (draw refunded)

72%

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrby IF at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Oskarshamns AIK away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.71 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrby IF attack 2.11 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.91

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.07 + Norrby IF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Norrby IF scores more

56%

level

22%

Oskarshamns AIK scores more

22%

Norrby IF at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff