Oskarshamns AIK 3–2 Ariana: Result & Stats

Oskarshamns AIK

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Ariana

P. Diouf 69', 21'

A. Jibodu 57'

Arfan Habibi 32'

O. Khalid 29'

8/12/2023

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 17Arena Oskarshamn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Oskarshamns AIK46%

×Draw24%

Ariana30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oskarshamns AIKExpected goals in this matchAriana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.31

Oskarshamns AIK

1.66

Ariana

1.31

Oskarshamns AIK creates 27% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 45 away

1.68

creates per match

1.11

1.50

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Oskarshamns AIK

1.68

Ariana

1.11

allows per match

Oskarshamns AIK

1.50

Ariana

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par

Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oskarshamns AIK ↓

Ariana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Oskarshamns AIK or draw

70%

Oskarshamns AIK or Ariana

76%

Draw or Ariana

54%

Winning margin

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+

24%

Ariana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals

81%

Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals

49%

Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals

23%

Ariana 1+ goals

73%

Ariana 2+ goals

38%

Ariana 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)

60%

Ariana (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oskarshamns AIK at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.50 · 105 matches

Ariana away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.68 + Ariana defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ariana attack 1.11 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oskarshamns AIK scores more

46%

level

24%

Ariana scores more

30%

Oskarshamns AIK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oskarshamns AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

29'

32'

57'

64'

E. Yeboah← L. Minter Wettergren

64'

K. Kizito← I. Hussein

65'

T. Holmkvist← A. Reuterskiöld

68'

A. Vidjeskog← N. van Wetten

69'

P. Diouf

77'

A. Vidjeskog

77'

M. Hamdan← H. Andersson

79'

F. Wennergrund← A. Jibodu

85'

Nicolas

88'

A. Ćatić← A. Gaitanidis

88'

A. Saad Handal← E. Crona

88'

M. Ulaj← P. Diouf

Oskarshamns

Ariana

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Diouf

▼

Crona

▼

Gaitanidi

Manager: T. Gabrielsson

68'▲A. Vidjeskog←▼N. van Wetten

79'▲F. Wennergrund←▼A. Jibodu

88'▲A. Ćatić←▼A. Gaitanidis

88'▲A. Saad Handal←▼E. Crona

88'▲M. Ulaj←▼P. Diouf

Oskarshamns AIK substitutes

VidjeskogWennergrundĆatićHandalUlajKarlssonLindblom

Manager: B. Llazani

64'▲E. Yeboah←▼L. Minter Wettergren

64'▲K. Kizito←▼I. Hussein

65'▲T. Holmkvist←▼A. Reuterskiöld

77'▲M. Hamdan←▼H. Andersson

Ariana substitutes

YeboahKizitoHolmkvistHamdanHerkCavanderFröjdh

Ettan - Södra: Oskarshamns AIK 3–2 Ariana

Oskarshamns AIK beat Ariana 3-2 in Ettan - Södra on August 12, 2023.

Goals: P. Diouf (21', 69'), O. Khalid (29'), Arfan Habibi (32'), A. Jibodu (57').

The match was played at Arena Oskarshamn in Oskarshamn.

Oskarshamns AIK vs Ariana — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ettan - Södra: Oskarshamns AIK 3–2 Ariana