Ariana 1–1 Oskarshamns AIK: Result & Stats

Ariana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oskarshamns AIK

E. Mehmed 46'

C. Burehed 87'

4/27/2024

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 5Malmö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ariana52%

×Draw24%

Oskarshamns AIK25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArianaExpected goals in this matchOskarshamns AIK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.14

Ariana

1.75

Oskarshamns AIK

1.14

Ariana creates 54% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 105 away

1.80

creates per match

1.08

1.20

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Ariana

1.80

Oskarshamns AIK

1.08

allows per match

Ariana

1.20

Oskarshamns AIK

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Oskarshamns AIK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ariana or draw

75%

Ariana or Oskarshamns AIK

76%

Draw or Oskarshamns AIK

48%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+

28%

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals

83%

Ariana 2+ goals

52%

Ariana 3+ goals

25%

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals

68%

Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals

32%

Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)

68%

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

Oskarshamns AIK away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.71 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.80 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.08 + Ariana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ariana scores more

52%

level

24%

Oskarshamns AIK scores more

25%

Ariana at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

E. Mehmed

57'

C. Burehed← F. Stenman

60'

A. Blomqvist

65'

J. Brannefalk← O. Khalid

72'

A. Radi← Tarek Alnator

72'

O. Olaniyan← J. Courtrai

80'

D. Mesic← A. Reinholdsson

87'

C. Burehed

Ariana

Oskarshamns

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: F. Sahan

65'▲J. Brannefalk←▼O. Khalid

80'▲D. Mesic←▼A. Reinholdsson

Ariana substitutes

BrannefalkMesicReuterskiöldSabriyeHabibiArnshedNilsson

Manager: T. Gabrielsson

57'▲C. Burehed←▼F. Stenman

72'▲A. Radi←▼Tarek Alnator

72'▲O. Olaniyan←▼J. Courtrai

Oskarshamns AIK substitutes

BurehedRadiOlaniyanJiboduTuhralKarlssonHartmann

Ettan - Södra: Ariana 1–1 Oskarshamns AIK

Ariana and Oskarshamns AIK drew 1-1 in Ettan - Södra on April 27, 2024.

Goals: E. Mehmed (46'), C. Burehed (87').

The match was played at Malmö Stadion in Malmö.

Ariana vs Oskarshamns AIK — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ettan - Södra: Ariana 1–1 Oskarshamns AIK