Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Osipovichy vs FC Vitebsk — 1. Division 2018

Osipovichy
Osipovichy
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
11/4/20231. Division1. Division · Round 31Stadyen Junatstva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Osipovichy11%
×Draw17%
FC Vitebsk73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osipovichy
0.79
FC Vitebsk
2.39

FC Vitebsk creates 203% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 16 away

creates per match

Osipovichy
0.77
FC Vitebsk
2.31

allows per match

Osipovichy
2.47
FC Vitebsk
0.81

finishing

Osipovichy+0.00on par
FC Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osipovichy ↓

FC Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–212%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Osipovichy or draw
27%
Osipovichy or FC Vitebsk
83%
Draw or FC Vitebsk
89%

Winning margin

Osipovichy wins by 2+
3%
FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Osipovichy 1+ goals
55%
Osipovichy 2+ goals
19%
Osipovichy 3+ goals
5%
FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
91%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
69%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Osipovichy (draw refunded)
13%
FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osipovichy at home — creates 0.77, concedes 2.47 · 53 matches

FC Vitebsk away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osipovichy attack 0.77 + FC Vitebsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

FC Vitebsk attack 2.31 + Osipovichy defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Osipovichy scores more
11%
level
17%
FC Vitebsk scores more
73%

FC Vitebsk at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "FC Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Osipovichy 0–4 FC Vitebsk

FC Vitebsk beat Osipovichy 4-0 in 1. Division on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Junatstva in Osipovichy.