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FC Vitebsk vs Osipovichy — 1. Division 2018

FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Osipovichy
Osipovichy
7/2/20231. Division1. Division · Round 14Stadyen Central'ny Vitsyebski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Vitebsk70%
×Draw18%
Osipovichy12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Vitebsk
2.25
Osipovichy
0.82

FC Vitebsk creates 174% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC Vitebsk
1.94
Osipovichy
1.08

allows per match

FC Vitebsk
0.56
Osipovichy
2.57

finishing

FC Vitebsk+0.00on par
Osipovichy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vitebsk ↓

Osipovichy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Vitebsk or draw
88%
FC Vitebsk or Osipovichy
82%
Draw or Osipovichy
30%

Winning margin

FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
46%
Osipovichy wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
89%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
65%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
39%
Osipovichy 1+ goals
56%
Osipovichy 2+ goals
20%
Osipovichy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
85%
Osipovichy (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vitebsk at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

Osipovichy away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vitebsk attack 1.94 + Osipovichy defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.25

Osipovichy attack 1.08 + FC Vitebsk defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FC Vitebsk scores more
70%
level
18%
Osipovichy scores more
12%

FC Vitebsk at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FC Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Vitebsk vs Osipovichy

FC Vitebsk beat Osipovichy 5-1 in 1. Division on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Central'ny Vitsyebski in Vitebsk.