OshMU Aldier 0–2 Abdish-Ata: Result & Stats

OshMU Aldier

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Abdish-Ata

A. Saliev 84', 16'

9/30/2024

Premier League · Round 24Stadion Kulatov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

OshMU Aldier29%

×Draw23%

Abdish-Ata48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OshMU AldierExpected goals in this matchAbdish-Ata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.79

OshMU Aldier

1.35

Abdish-Ata

1.79

Abdish-Ata creates 33% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 94 away

1.45

creates per match

1.94

1.64

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

OshMU Aldier

1.45

Abdish-Ata

1.94

allows per match

OshMU Aldier

1.64

Abdish-Ata

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OshMU Aldier+0.00on par

Abdish-Ata+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OshMU Aldier ↓

Abdish-Ata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

OshMU Aldier or draw

52%

OshMU Aldier or Abdish-Ata

77%

Draw or Abdish-Ata

71%

Winning margin

OshMU Aldier wins by 2+

13%

Abdish-Ata wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

OshMU Aldier 1+ goals

74%

OshMU Aldier 2+ goals

39%

OshMU Aldier 3+ goals

15%

Abdish-Ata 1+ goals

83%

Abdish-Ata 2+ goals

53%

Abdish-Ata 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

OshMU Aldier (draw refunded)

38%

Abdish-Ata (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OshMU Aldier at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 44 matches

Abdish-Ata away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.26 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OshMU Aldier attack 1.45 + Abdish-Ata defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Abdish-Ata attack 1.94 + OshMU Aldier defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

OshMU Aldier scores more

29%

level

23%

Abdish-Ata scores more

48%

Abdish-Ata at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Abdish-Ata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. Saliev

84'

A. Saliev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff