Abdish-Ata 1–0 OshMU Aldier: Result & Stats

Abdish-Ata

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

OshMU Aldier

Riquelme 7'

4/11/2025

Premier League · Round 5Tsentralniy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Abdish-Ata54%

×Draw24%

OshMU Aldier22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Abdish-AtaExpected goals in this matchOshMU Aldier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.00

Abdish-Ata

1.71

OshMU Aldier

1.00

Abdish-Ata creates 71% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 51 away

1.96

creates per match

1.06

0.95

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Abdish-Ata

1.96

OshMU Aldier

1.06

allows per match

Abdish-Ata

0.95

OshMU Aldier

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abdish-Ata+0.00on par

OshMU Aldier+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abdish-Ata ↓

OshMU Aldier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Abdish-Ata or draw

78%

Abdish-Ata or OshMU Aldier

76%

Draw or OshMU Aldier

46%

Winning margin

Abdish-Ata wins by 2+

30%

OshMU Aldier wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Abdish-Ata 1+ goals

82%

Abdish-Ata 2+ goals

51%

Abdish-Ata 3+ goals

24%

OshMU Aldier 1+ goals

63%

OshMU Aldier 2+ goals

26%

OshMU Aldier 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Abdish-Ata (draw refunded)

71%

OshMU Aldier (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abdish-Ata at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.95 · 98 matches

OshMU Aldier away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abdish-Ata attack 1.96 + OshMU Aldier defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

OshMU Aldier attack 1.06 + Abdish-Ata defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Abdish-Ata scores more

54%

level

24%

OshMU Aldier scores more

22%

Abdish-Ata at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Abdish-Ata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Riquelme

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff