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Osasuna vs Extremadura — Segunda División 2018

Osasuna
Osasuna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Extremadura
Extremadura
3/31/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 32Estadio El Sadar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Osasuna56%
×Draw27%
Extremadura18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna
1.47
Extremadura
0.70

Osasuna creates 110% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 42 away

creates per match

Osasuna
1.62
Extremadura
1.07

allows per match

Osasuna
0.33
Extremadura
1.31

finishing

Osasuna+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Osasuna or draw
82%
Osasuna or Extremadura
73%
Draw or Extremadura
44%

Winning margin

Osasuna wins by 2+
29%
Extremadura wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Osasuna 1+ goals
77%
Osasuna 2+ goals
43%
Osasuna 3+ goals
18%
Extremadura 1+ goals
50%
Extremadura 2+ goals
16%
Extremadura 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Osasuna (draw refunded)
76%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.33 · 21 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna attack 1.62 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Osasuna defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Osasuna scores more
56%
level
27%
Extremadura scores more
18%

Osasuna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Osasuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Osasuna 1–0 Extremadura

Osasuna beat Extremadura 1-0 in Segunda División on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Sadar in Pamplona.