Extremadura 2–3 Osasuna: Result & Stats

Extremadura

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Osasuna

11/10/2018

Segunda División · Round 13Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Extremadura35%

×Draw28%

Osasuna37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExtremaduraExpected goals in this matchOsasuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.20

Extremadura

1.16

Osasuna

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 21 away

0.98

creates per match

1.19

1.21

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Extremadura

0.98

Osasuna

1.19

allows per match

Extremadura

1.21

Osasuna

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par

Osasuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Osasuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw

63%

Extremadura or Osasuna

72%

Draw or Osasuna

65%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+

14%

Osasuna wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals

69%

Extremadura 2+ goals

32%

Extremadura 3+ goals

11%

Osasuna 1+ goals

70%

Osasuna 2+ goals

34%

Osasuna 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)

49%

Osasuna (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Osasuna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 0.98 + Osasuna defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Osasuna attack 1.19 + Extremadura defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Extremadura scores more

35%

level

28%

Osasuna scores more

37%

Osasuna at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Osasuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff