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Osasuna II vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Osasuna II
Osasuna II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
3/24/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Campo A2 de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Osasuna II36%
×Draw28%
Cultural Leonesa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna II
1.20
Cultural Leonesa
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 88 away

creates per match

Osasuna II
1.09
Cultural Leonesa
1.16

allows per match

Osasuna II
1.26
Cultural Leonesa
1.31

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw
64%
Osasuna II or Cultural Leonesa
72%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
64%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+
15%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals
70%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
34%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
12%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
70%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
34%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)
50%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.09 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Osasuna II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Osasuna II scores more
36%
level
28%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
36%

Osasuna II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Osasuna II 0–0 Cultural Leonesa

Osasuna II and Cultural Leonesa drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Campo A2 de Tajonar in Navarra.