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Osasuna II vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Osasuna II
Osasuna II
CANC
22:00
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
5/9/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Osasuna II45%
×Draw26%
Cultural Leonesa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna II
1.48
Cultural Leonesa
1.13

Osasuna II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Osasuna II
1.63
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

allows per match

Osasuna II
0.93
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw
71%
Osasuna II or Cultural Leonesa
74%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
55%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+
22%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals
77%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
43%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
19%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
68%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
31%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)
61%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.63 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.33 + Osasuna II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Osasuna II scores more
45%
level
26%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
29%

Osasuna II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Osasuna II host Cultural Leonesa

May 9, 2020: Osasuna II take on Cultural Leonesa in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Osasuna II host Cultural Leonesa at Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.