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Osasuna II vs Calahorra — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Osasuna II
Osasuna II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Calahorra
Calahorra
12/12/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Campo A2 de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Osasuna II48%
×Draw28%
Calahorra24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna II
1.35
Calahorra
0.85

Osasuna II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Osasuna II
1.63
Calahorra
0.78

allows per match

Osasuna II
0.93
Calahorra
1.07

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par
Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Calahorra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw
76%
Osasuna II or Calahorra
72%
Draw or Calahorra
52%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+
23%
Calahorra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals
74%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
39%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
15%
Calahorra 1+ goals
57%
Calahorra 2+ goals
21%
Calahorra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)
67%
Calahorra (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Calahorra away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.63 + Calahorra defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

Calahorra attack 0.78 + Osasuna II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Osasuna II scores more
48%
level
28%
Calahorra scores more
24%

Osasuna II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Osasuna II vs Calahorra

Osasuna II and Calahorra drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Campo A2 de Tajonar in Navarra.