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Calahorra vs Osasuna II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Osasuna II
Osasuna II
3/14/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Calahorra42%
×Draw28%
Osasuna II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
1.26
Osasuna II
1.00

Calahorra creates 26% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 46 away

creates per match

Calahorra
1.02
Osasuna II
0.96

allows per match

Calahorra
1.05
Osasuna II
1.50

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Osasuna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
71%
Calahorra or Osasuna II
72%
Draw or Osasuna II
58%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
19%
Osasuna II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
72%
Calahorra 2+ goals
36%
Calahorra 3+ goals
13%
Osasuna II 1+ goals
63%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
26%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
59%
Osasuna II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.02 + Osasuna II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.26

Osasuna II attack 0.96 + Calahorra defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Calahorra scores more
42%
level
28%
Osasuna II scores more
29%

Calahorra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calahorra vs Osasuna II

Calahorra beat Osasuna II 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.