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Os vs Lysekloster — 3. Division - Girone 1 2026

Os
Os
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Lysekloster
Lysekloster
L. Olsen 77'
D. Kvalvagnes 32'
H. V. Karlsen 30'
N. Marthinussen 90+4'
T. Horneland 90+1'
L. Fagerlie 25'
10/17/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 24Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Os41%
×Draw20%
Lysekloster39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Os
2.15
Lysekloster
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

creates per match

Os
3.15
Lysekloster
2.38

allows per match

Os
1.79
Lysekloster
1.15

finishing

Os+0.00on par
Lysekloster+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Os ↓

Lysekloster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Os or draw
61%
Os or Lysekloster
80%
Draw or Lysekloster
59%

Winning margin

Os wins by 2+
23%
Lysekloster wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Os 1+ goals
88%
Os 2+ goals
63%
Os 3+ goals
36%
Lysekloster 1+ goals
87%
Lysekloster 2+ goals
61%
Lysekloster 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Os (draw refunded)
52%
Lysekloster (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Os at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.79 · 39 matches

Lysekloster away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Os attack 3.15 + Lysekloster defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.15

Lysekloster attack 2.38 + Os defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Os scores more
41%
level
20%
Lysekloster scores more
39%

Os at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Os will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
L. Fagerlie
30'
H. V. Karlsen
32'
D. Kvalvagnes
77'
L. Olsen
90+1'
T. Horneland
90+4'
N. Marthinussen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Os vs Lysekloster

Os and Lysekloster drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 17, 2023.

Goals: L. Fagerlie (25'), H. V. Karlsen (30'), D. Kvalvagnes (32'), L. Olsen (77'), T. Horneland (90+1'), N. Marthinussen (90+4').

The match was played at Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress in Os.