Lysekloster 5–1 Os: Result & Stats

Lysekloster

FT

5 – 1

Os

3/28/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lysekloster70%

×Draw15%

Os15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyseklosterExpected goals in this matchOs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.09

1.39

Lysekloster

3.09

Os

1.39

Lysekloster creates 122% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.78

creates per match

1.00

1.78

allows per match

4.40

creates per match

Lysekloster

1.78

Os

1.00

allows per match

Lysekloster

1.78

Os

4.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lysekloster+0.00on par

Os+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lysekloster ↓

Os →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Lysekloster or draw

85%

Lysekloster or Os

85%

Draw or Os

30%

Winning margin

Lysekloster wins by 2+

51%

Os wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lysekloster 1+ goals

95%

Lysekloster 2+ goals

81%

Lysekloster 3+ goals

58%

Os 1+ goals

75%

Os 2+ goals

40%

Os 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lysekloster (draw refunded)

83%

Os (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lysekloster at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Os away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lysekloster attack 1.78 + Os defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 3.09

Os attack 1.00 + Lysekloster defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Lysekloster scores more

70%

level

15%

Os scores more

15%

Lysekloster at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Lysekloster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Lysekloster

Os

Manager: Tommy Knarvik

Manager: Z. Korcsmár