Os 4–3 Fyllingsdalen: Result & Stats

Os

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Fyllingsdalen

S. Platzer 74'

H. T. Sperrevik 71'

D. Kvalvagnes 51', 9'

S. Aga 85'

A. Selnes 76'

A. Waagan 64'

10/16/2022

3. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 25Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Os53%

×Draw20%

Fyllingsdalen27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsExpected goals in this matchFyllingsdalen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.71

Os

2.42

Fyllingsdalen

1.71

Os creates 42% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

3.15

creates per match

1.62

1.79

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Os

3.15

Fyllingsdalen

1.62

allows per match

Os

1.79

Fyllingsdalen

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Os+0.00on par

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Os ↓

Fyllingsdalen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Os or draw

73%

Os or Fyllingsdalen

80%

Draw or Fyllingsdalen

47%

Winning margin

Os wins by 2+

33%

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Os 1+ goals

91%

Os 2+ goals

69%

Os 3+ goals

43%

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals

82%

Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals

51%

Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Os (draw refunded)

66%

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Os at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.79 · 39 matches

Fyllingsdalen away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Os attack 3.15 + Fyllingsdalen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.42

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.62 + Os defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Os scores more

53%

level

20%

Fyllingsdalen scores more

27%

Os at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Os will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

D. Kvalvagnes

51'

D. Kvalvagnes

64'

A. Waagan

71'

H. T. Sperrevik

74'

S. Platzer

76'

A. Selnes

85'

S. Aga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff