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Os vs Frøya — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Os
Os
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Frøya
Frøya
H. V. Karlsen 38'
A. E. Missbah R. 44'
S. Kvamsdal 43'
E. Vetas 40' (pen)
10/5/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 24Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Os61%
×Draw17%
Frøya22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Os
2.90
Frøya
1.72

Os creates 69% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 26 away

creates per match

Os
3.15
Frøya
1.65

allows per match

Os
1.79
Frøya
2.65

finishing

Os+0.00on par
Frøya+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Os ↓

Frøya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Os or draw
78%
Os or Frøya
83%
Draw or Frøya
39%

Winning margin

Os wins by 2+
41%
Frøya wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Os 1+ goals
94%
Os 2+ goals
78%
Os 3+ goals
54%
Frøya 1+ goals
82%
Frøya 2+ goals
51%
Frøya 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Os (draw refunded)
74%
Frøya (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Os at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.79 · 39 matches

Frøya away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Os attack 3.15 + Frøya defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.90

Frøya attack 1.65 + Os defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Os scores more
61%
level
17%
Frøya scores more
22%

Os at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Os will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
H. V. Karlsen
40'
E. VetasPenalty
43'
S. Kvamsdal
44'
A. E. Missbah R.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Os vs Frøya

Frøya beat Os 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 5, 2024.

Goals: H. V. Karlsen (38'), E. Vetas (40' pen), S. Kvamsdal (43'), A. E. Missbah R. (44').

The match was played at Kuventræ Idrettsplass kunstgress in Os.