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Frøya vs Os — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Frøya
Frøya
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Os
Os
S. Naess 87', 24' (pen), 19'
L. Rebnord 26'
K. Halvorsen 76'
V. S. Skeie 72'
10/23/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 26Frøya idrettspark kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Frøya30%
×Draw21%
Os49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frøya
1.58
Os
2.06

Os creates 30% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 39 away

creates per match

Frøya
1.38
Os
2.31

allows per match

Frøya
1.81
Os
1.79

finishing

Frøya+0.00on par
Os+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frøya ↓

Os →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Frøya or draw
51%
Frøya or Os
79%
Draw or Os
70%

Winning margin

Frøya wins by 2+
14%
Os wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Frøya 1+ goals
79%
Frøya 2+ goals
47%
Frøya 3+ goals
21%
Os 1+ goals
87%
Os 2+ goals
61%
Os 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Frøya (draw refunded)
38%
Os (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frøya at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

Os away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.79 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frøya attack 1.38 + Os defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Os attack 2.31 + Frøya defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Frøya scores more
30%
level
21%
Os scores more
49%

Os at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Os will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
S. Naess
24'
S. NaessPenalty
26'
L. Rebnord
72'
V. S. Skeie
76'
K. Halvorsen
87'
S. Naess

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frøya 4 – 2 Os

Frøya beat Os 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 23, 2022.

Goals: S. Naess (19', 24' pen, 87'), L. Rebnord (26'), V. S. Skeie (72'), K. Halvorsen (76').

The match was played at Frøya idrettspark kunstgress in Hamarvik.