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Orsomarso W vs Atlético Bucaramanga W — Liga Femenina 2020

Orsomarso W
Orsomarso W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Bucaramanga W
Atlético Bucaramanga W
4/13/2022Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 12Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Orsomarso W68%
×Draw21%
Atlético Bucaramanga W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso W
1.89
Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.61

Orsomarso W creates 210% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 39 away

creates per match

Orsomarso W
1.33
Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.49

allows per match

Orsomarso W
0.74
Atlético Bucaramanga W
2.44

finishing

Orsomarso W+0.00on par
Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso W ↓

Atlético Bucaramanga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Orsomarso W or draw
89%
Orsomarso W or Atlético Bucaramanga W
79%
Draw or Atlético Bucaramanga W
32%

Winning margin

Orsomarso W wins by 2+
41%
Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Orsomarso W 1+ goals
85%
Orsomarso W 2+ goals
56%
Orsomarso W 3+ goals
29%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals
46%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals
13%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso W (draw refunded)
86%
Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W away — creates 0.49, concedes 2.44 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso W attack 1.33 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.49 + Orsomarso W defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Orsomarso W scores more
68%
level
21%
Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more
11%

Orsomarso W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Orsomarso W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Orsomarso W 0–0 Atlético Bucaramanga W

Orsomarso W and Atlético Bucaramanga W drew 0-0 in Liga Femenina on April 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.