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Atlético Bucaramanga W vs Orsomarso W — Liga Femenina 2020

Atlético Bucaramanga W
Atlético Bucaramanga W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Orsomarso W
Orsomarso W
4/12/2026Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Round 7Cancha Marte - UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W23%
×Draw27%
Orsomarso W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.87
Orsomarso W
1.40

Orsomarso W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 26 away

creates per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.55
Orsomarso W
1.04

allows per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W
1.76
Orsomarso W
1.19

finishing

Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par
Orsomarso W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Bucaramanga W ↓

Orsomarso W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Bucaramanga W or draw
51%
Atlético Bucaramanga W or Orsomarso W
73%
Draw or Orsomarso W
77%

Winning margin

Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+
8%
Orsomarso W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals
58%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals
6%
Orsomarso W 1+ goals
75%
Orsomarso W 2+ goals
41%
Orsomarso W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)
32%
Orsomarso W (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Bucaramanga W at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

Orsomarso W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.55 + Orsomarso W defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.87

Orsomarso W attack 1.04 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more
23%
level
27%
Orsomarso W scores more
49%

Orsomarso W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Orsomarso W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Atlético Bucaramanga W 1–1 Orsomarso W

Atlético Bucaramanga W and Orsomarso W drew 1-1 in Liga Femenina on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Cancha Marte - UMT in Bucaramanga.