Orsomarso 0–1 Envigado: Result & Stats | Primera B

Orsomarso

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Envigado

3/1/2026

Primera B · Apertura - 7Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Orsomarso29%

×Draw26%

Envigado45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrsomarsoExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.48

Orsomarso

1.13

Envigado

1.48

Envigado creates 31% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 12 away

1.08

creates per match

1.83

1.13

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Orsomarso

1.08

Envigado

1.83

allows per match

Orsomarso

1.13

Envigado

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw

55%

Orsomarso or Envigado

74%

Draw or Envigado

71%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+

11%

Envigado wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals

68%

Orsomarso 2+ goals

31%

Orsomarso 3+ goals

11%

Envigado 1+ goals

77%

Envigado 2+ goals

43%

Envigado 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)

39%

Envigado (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

Envigado away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 1.08 + Envigado defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Envigado attack 1.83 + Orsomarso defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Orsomarso scores more

29%

level

26%

Envigado scores more

45%

Envigado at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff