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Envigado vs Orsomarso — Copa Colombia 2019

Envigado
Envigado
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orsomarso
Orsomarso
3/5/2024Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Envigado57%
×Draw28%
Orsomarso15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Envigado
1.37
Orsomarso
0.55

Envigado creates 149% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

creates per match

Envigado
1.41
Orsomarso
0.40

allows per match

Envigado
0.71
Orsomarso
1.33

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par
Orsomarso+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Orsomarso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Envigado or draw
85%
Envigado or Orsomarso
72%
Draw or Orsomarso
43%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+
28%
Orsomarso wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals
75%
Envigado 2+ goals
40%
Envigado 3+ goals
16%
Orsomarso 1+ goals
42%
Orsomarso 2+ goals
11%
Orsomarso 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)
79%
Orsomarso (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Orsomarso away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.41 + Orsomarso defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Orsomarso attack 0.40 + Envigado defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Envigado scores more
57%
level
28%
Orsomarso scores more
15%

Envigado at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Envigado 1–0 Orsomarso

Envigado beat Orsomarso 1-0 in Copa Colombia on March 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.