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Orsomarso vs Alianza Valledupar — Copa Colombia 2020

Orsomarso
Orsomarso
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
C. Lara 44'
A. Ruiz 15'
J. Munoz 46'
S. A. Aponza Cantonil 3'
6/8/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st Round - 3Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Orsomarso47%
×Draw30%
Alianza Valledupar23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso
1.24
Alianza Valledupar
0.78

Orsomarso creates 59% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

Orsomarso
0.73
Alianza Valledupar
0.75

allows per match

Orsomarso
0.82
Alianza Valledupar
1.75

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw
77%
Orsomarso or Alianza Valledupar
70%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
53%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+
21%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals
71%
Orsomarso 2+ goals
35%
Orsomarso 3+ goals
13%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
54%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
18%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)
67%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 0.73 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.24

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Orsomarso defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Orsomarso scores more
47%
level
30%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
23%

Orsomarso at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Orsomarso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
S. A. Aponza Cantonil
15'
A. Ruiz
44'
C. Lara
46'
J. Munoz
90'
Orsomarso
Alianza
Stiven Sanchez Pena
Manager: Stiven Sanchez Pena
Hubert Antonio Bodhert Barrios
Manager: Hubert Antonio Bodhert Barrios

Match Recap: Orsomarso vs Alianza Valledupar

Orsomarso and Alianza Valledupar drew 2-2 in Copa Colombia on June 8, 2025.

Goals: S. A. Aponza Cantonil (3'), A. Ruiz (15'), C. Lara (44'), J. Munoz (46').

The match was played at Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.