Alianza Valledupar vs Orsomarso — Copa Colombia 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Alianza Valledupar61%
Orsomarso15%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alianza Valledupar creates 146% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alianza Valledupar ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches
Orsomarso away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alianza Valledupar attack 2.00 + Orsomarso defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67
Orsomarso attack 0.40 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.68
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 61%?"
Alianza Valledupar at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 61% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Atletico Nacional
America de Cali
Deportivo Cali
Junior
Santa Fe
Deportes TolimaAlianza Petrolera
Cucuta
Independiente Medellin
Once Caldas
Millonarios
Bucaramanga
Rionegro Aguilas
Deportivo Pasto
Patriotas
Envigado
La Equidad
Huila
Jaguares
Union MagdalenaMillonariosDeportivo CaliDeportes TolimaAmerica de CaliAtletico NacionalDeportivo PastoJuniorUnion MagdalenaIndependiente MedellinOnce CaldasCucutaPatriotasEnvigadoAlianza PetroleraJaguaresLa EquidadBucaramangaHuilaRionegro AguilasSanta FeIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Alianza Valledupar host Orsomarso on Wednesday, 3 May 2023 at 00:40. The match is part of the Copa Colombia 2019/2020 season.
Alianza Valledupar 3 – 1 Orsomarso
Alianza Valledupar beat Orsomarso 3-1 in Copa Colombia on May 3, 2023.
Goals: A. Rodríguez (55'), J. Ceballos (64'), Y. Abonía (73'), M. Gil (86').
The match was played at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata in Barrancabermeja.