Orsha 0–0 Khimik Svetlogorsk: Result & Stats

Orsha

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Khimik Svetlogorsk

9/28/2019

1. Division · Round 22Stadyen Haradski (Barysaw (Borisov))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Orsha44%

×Draw24%

Khimik Svetlogorsk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrshaExpected goals in this matchKhimik Svetlogorsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.34

Orsha

1.64

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.34

Orsha creates 22% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 59 away

1.25

creates per match

0.92

1.76

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Orsha

1.25

Khimik Svetlogorsk

0.92

allows per match

Orsha

1.76

Khimik Svetlogorsk

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orsha+0.00on par

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsha ↓

Khimik Svetlogorsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Orsha or draw

69%

Orsha or Khimik Svetlogorsk

76%

Draw or Khimik Svetlogorsk

56%

Winning margin

Orsha wins by 2+

23%

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Orsha 1+ goals

81%

Orsha 2+ goals

49%

Orsha 3+ goals

23%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals

74%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals

39%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Orsha (draw refunded)

59%

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsha at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.76 · 125 matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.02 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsha attack 1.25 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.64

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 0.92 + Orsha defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Orsha scores more

44%

level

24%

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more

31%

Orsha at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Orsha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

V. Belyavskiy← O. Shuplyak

50'

E. Lebedev← M. Grechikha

58'

M. Kalinchenko← V. Kazakov

63'

A. Siyaka← G. Zheleznikov

69'

A. Galyak← A. Arkhiptsev

72'

I. Tyunis← A. Kucherov

82'

A. Sazankov← E. Zemko

84'

K. Nasanovich← A. Prokopenko

Orsha

Khimik

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Vekhtev

50'▲E. Lebedev←▼M. Grechikha

58'▲M. Kalinchenko←▼V. Kazakov

63'▲A. Siyaka←▼G. Zheleznikov

72'▲I. Tyunis←▼A. Kucherov

82'▲A. Sazankov←▼E. Zemko

Orsha substitutes

LebedevKalinchenkoSiyakaTyunisSazankovLutikGolomako

Manager: S. Petrushevski

15'▲V. Belyavskiy←▼O. Shuplyak

69'▲A. Galyak←▼A. Arkhiptsev

84'▲K. Nasanovich←▼A. Prokopenko

Khimik Svetlogorsk substitutes

BelyavskiyGalyakNasanovichBelyavskiyTanko