Khimik Svetlogorsk 2–1 Orsha: Result & Stats

Khimik Svetlogorsk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Orsha

A. Komarov 90', 55' (pen)

D. Ivanov 17'

5/25/2019

1. Division · Round 7Stadyen Bumashnik (Svietlahorsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Khimik Svetlogorsk43%

×Draw24%

Orsha33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khimik SvetlogorskExpected goals in this matchOrsha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.35

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.58

Orsha

1.35

Khimik Svetlogorsk creates 17% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 128 away

1.00

creates per match

1.35

1.34

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.00

Orsha

1.35

allows per match

Khimik Svetlogorsk

1.34

Orsha

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimik Svetlogorsk+0.00on par

Orsha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Svetlogorsk ↓

Orsha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Khimik Svetlogorsk or draw

67%

Khimik Svetlogorsk or Orsha

76%

Draw or Orsha

57%

Winning margin

Khimik Svetlogorsk wins by 2+

22%

Orsha wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Khimik Svetlogorsk 1+ goals

79%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 2+ goals

47%

Khimik Svetlogorsk 3+ goals

21%

Orsha 1+ goals

74%

Orsha 2+ goals

39%

Orsha 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Khimik Svetlogorsk (draw refunded)

57%

Orsha (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Svetlogorsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 56 matches

Orsha away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Svetlogorsk attack 1.00 + Orsha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Orsha attack 1.35 + Khimik Svetlogorsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khimik Svetlogorsk scores more

43%

level

24%

Orsha scores more

33%

Khimik Svetlogorsk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Khimik Svetlogorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

D. Ivanov

38'

A. Arkhiptsev← K. Nasanovich

46'

A. Galyak← A. Filipenko

46'

A. Labadze← D. Lebedev

51'

N. Ivanov← D. Samedov

55'

A. KomarovPenalty

72'

A. Sidenko← I. Berezun

88'

D. Bubnov← E. Belyavskiy

90'

A. Komarov

Khimik

Orsha

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: S. Petrushevski

38'▲A. Arkhiptsev←▼K. Nasanovich

46'▲A. Galyak←▼A. Filipenko

46'▲A. Labadze←▼D. Lebedev

88'▲D. Bubnov←▼E. Belyavskiy

Khimik Svetlogorsk substitutes

ArkhiptsevGalyakLabadzeBubnovPonyakovTanko

Manager: S. Vekhtev

51'▲N. Ivanov←▼D. Samedov

72'▲A. Sidenko←▼I. Berezun

Orsha substitutes

IvanovSidenkoSuzdaltsevDavydenkoKitaev