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Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs KSZO 1929 — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
5/13/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski33%
×Draw25%
KSZO 192941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.31
KSZO 1929
1.49

KSZO 1929 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 105 away

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.34
KSZO 1929
1.36

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.62
KSZO 1929
1.28

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par
KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

KSZO 1929 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw
59%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or KSZO 1929
75%
Draw or KSZO 1929
67%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
15%
KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
73%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
38%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
14%
KSZO 1929 1+ goals
77%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
44%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
45%
KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

KSZO 1929 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

KSZO 1929 attack 1.36 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
33%
level
25%
KSZO 1929 scores more
41%

KSZO 1929 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs KSZO 1929

KSZO 1929 beat Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 4-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Radzyń Podlaski.