KSZO 1929 2–2 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

KSZO 1929

FT

2 – 2

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

3/23/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Miejski Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

KSZO 192953%

×Draw23%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KSZO 1929Expected goals in this matchOrlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.16

KSZO 1929

1.85

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.16

KSZO 1929 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 70 away

1.81

creates per match

1.30

1.01

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

KSZO 1929

1.81

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.30

allows per match

KSZO 1929

1.01

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KSZO 1929 ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

KSZO 1929 or draw

76%

KSZO 1929 or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

77%

Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

47%

Winning margin

KSZO 1929 wins by 2+

30%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

KSZO 1929 1+ goals

84%

KSZO 1929 2+ goals

55%

KSZO 1929 3+ goals

28%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals

69%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals

32%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)

69%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KSZO 1929 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KSZO 1929 attack 1.81 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.85

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

KSZO 1929 scores more

53%

level

23%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more

24%

KSZO 1929 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff