Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1–2 Karpaty Krosno

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Karpaty Krosno

5/18/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 31Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski52%

×Draw22%

Karpaty Krosno26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlęta Radzyń PodlaskiExpected goals in this matchKarpaty Krosno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.28

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.91

Karpaty Krosno

1.28

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski creates 49% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

1.34

creates per match

0.94

1.62

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.34

Karpaty Krosno

0.94

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.62

Karpaty Krosno

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Karpaty Krosno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw

74%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Karpaty Krosno

78%

Draw or Karpaty Krosno

48%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+

30%

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals

85%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals

57%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals

30%

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals

72%

Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals

37%

Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)

67%

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Karpaty Krosno away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Karpaty Krosno defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.91

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.94 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more

52%

level

22%

Karpaty Krosno scores more

26%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff