Karpaty Krosno 3–5 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Karpaty Krosno

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

10/28/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karpaty Krosno33%

×Draw26%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karpaty KrosnoExpected goals in this matchOrlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.39

Karpaty Krosno

1.24

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.39

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

0.59

creates per match

1.30

1.47

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Karpaty Krosno

0.59

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.30

allows per match

Karpaty Krosno

1.47

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Krosno ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Karpaty Krosno or draw

60%

Karpaty Krosno or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

74%

Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

67%

Winning margin

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+

14%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals

71%

Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals

35%

Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals

13%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals

75%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals

40%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)

45%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Krosno at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.59 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.24

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Karpaty Krosno defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Karpaty Krosno scores more

33%

level

26%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more

40%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff