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Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Jutrzenka Giebułtów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
FT
3 – 2
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
3/20/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski54%
×Draw22%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.97
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.26

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski creates 56% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 20 away

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.34
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
0.90

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.62
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.60

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par
Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Jutrzenka Giebułtów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw
76%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
78%
Draw or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
46%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
31%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
86%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
58%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
31%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
72%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
36%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
69%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.97

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 0.90 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
54%
level
22%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
24%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Jutrzenka Giebułtów

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski beat Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Radzyń Podlaski.